IMF lifts China growth forecast for 2023, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year and next, citing a stronger-than-expected third quarter outturn and recent policy announcements.

Gross domestic production is projected to grow by 5.4 percent this year and growth is forecast to slow to 4.6 percent next year amid "the continued weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand," the IMF said in a report on conclusion of the Article IV Consultation mission visit on Tuesday.

"These projections reflect upward revisions of 0.4 percentage points in both 2023 and 2024 relative to October [World Economic Outlook] WEO projections due to a stronger-than-expected Q3 outturn and recent policy announcements," IMF first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath said.

In the October WEO report, the IMF had projected China's growth at 5% and 4.2 percent this year and next, citing the lower investment in the country amid the property sector crisis.

"The Chinese economy is on track to meet the government's 2023 growth target, reflecting a strong post-Covid recovery," the IMF said.

Core inflation is forecast to climb to 2.1% by end-2024 as the output gap continues to narrow.

"Over the medium term, growth is projected to gradually decline to about 3.5% by 2028 amid headwinds from weak productivity and population ageing," Gopinath said.